A Forecasting Method for Fertilizers Consumption in Brazil

نویسندگان

  • Eduardo S. Ogasawara
  • Daniel de Oliveira
  • Fabio Paschoal Junior
  • Rafael Castañeda
  • Myrna Amorim
  • Renato Mauro
  • Jorge de Abreu Soares
  • João Roberto de Toledo Quadros
  • Eduardo Bezerra
چکیده

Tracking information about fertilizers consumption in the world is very important since they are used to produce agriculture commodities. Brazil consumes a large amount of fertilizers due to its large-scale agriculture fields. Most of these fertilizers are currently imported. The analysis of consumption of major fertilizers, such as Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Potassium (NPK), Sulfur, Phosphate Rock, Potash, and Nitrogen become critical for long-term government decisions. In this paper we present a method for fertilizers consumption forecasting based on both Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and logistic function models. Our method was used to forecast fertilizers consumption in Brazil for the next 20 years considering different economic growth for the entire country. A Forecasting Method for Fertilizers Consumption in Brazil

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • IJAEIS

دوره 4  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2013